Category Archives: Global Warming

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Obama’s Science Team

Promising news

John Holdren and Jane Lubchenco are leading experts on climate change who have advocated forceful government action. Holdren will become Obama’s science adviser as director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. Lubchenco will lead the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees ocean and atmospheric studies and does much of the government’s research on global warming.

Holdren also will direct the president’s Council of Advisers on Science and Technology. Joining him as co-chairs will be Nobel Prize-winning scientist Harold Varmus, a former director of the National Institutes of Health, and Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Eric Lander, a specialist in human genome research.

“It’s time we once again put science at the top of our agenda and worked to restore America’s place as the world leader in science and technology,” Obama said in announcing the selections in his weekly radio address.

[...]

“From landing on the moon, to sequencing the human genome, to inventing the Internet, America has been the first to cross that new frontier because we had leaders who paved the way,” Obama said. “Leaders who not only invested in our scientists, but who respected the integrity of the scientific process.” **

**Also quaintly referred to as the Scientific Method

What is the “scientific method”?

The scientific method is the best way yet discovered for winnowing the truth from lies and delusion. The simple version looks something like this:

1. Observe some aspect of the universe.
2. Invent a tentative description, called a hypothesis, that is consistent with what you have observed.
3. Use the hypothesis to make predictions.
4. Test those predictions by experiments or further observations and modify the hypothesis in the light of your results.
5. Repeat steps 3 and 4 until there are no discrepancies between theory and experiment and/or observation.

When consistency is obtained the hypothesis becomes a theory and provides a coherent set of propositions which explain a class of phenomena. A theory is then a framework within which observations are explained and predictions are made.

Added note: I’d love to take the class that the above is from. Check out the syllabus.

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This caught my eye this morning

From the BBC (because you probably won’t hear this from any major US news outlet)

Major ice-shelf loss for Canada

The floating tongues of ice attached to Ellesmere Island, which have lasted for thousands of years, have seen almost a quarter of their cover break away.

One of them, the 50 sq km (20 sq miles) Markham shelf, has completely broken off to become floating sea-ice.

Researchers say warm air temperatures and reduced sea-ice conditions in the region have assisted the break-up.

“These substantial calving events underscore the rapidity of changes taking place in the Arctic,” said Trent University’s Dr Derek Mueller.

“These changes are irreversible under the present climate.”

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Loss of ice in the Arctic, and in particular the extensive sea-ice, has global implications. The “white parasol” at the top of the planet reflects energy from the Sun straight back out into space, helping to cool the Earth.

Further loss of Arctic ice will see radiation absorbed by darker seawater and snow-free land, potentially warming the Earth’s climate at an even faster rate than current observational data indicates.

Ice shelf definition from Wikipedia

I’m not as informed as I would like to be on this topic, but I often get the feeling that we have hit a tipping point and that there is no reversing this trend. From another related article ( BBC, July 30, 2008 )

The current warming being experienced in the Arctic means the conditions needed to rebuild the shelves simply does not exist.

“The one take-home message for me here is that these ice shelves aren’t re-generating,” explained Dr Derek Mueller, from Trent University, Ontario.

“There were, for some period of time, incipient ice shelves reforming in the form of sea-ice that just remained fast to the land for many decades; and those pieces of ice have broken up in the last eight years or so,” he told BBC News.

“Those aborted attempts at re-growth suggest to me that the conditions are not right either to maintain or re-grow these ice shelves.”

My musings, and again, I’m no scientist ( I don’t even play one on TV).

The questions that keep popping up for me: If we can’t reverse it, can we slow it? These reports seem to indicate no. So, what needs to be done to adapt to it? Because adapt we must, else we perish. In addition to the weather changes that will come from this warming, there are some massive economic ramifications as well.

For instance, a warmer earth will probably mean that farmland will have to move north, so how do we plan for that? What do we do with the displaced farmers whose land can no longer yield the crops it once did?  Will this mean a huge redistribution of land to farmers? Who will be the politicians brave enough to bring THAT up? (stop laughing).

The rise of sea level is another concern for those at the coasts. Do we build massive levee systems all around the countries of the world to protect their ports, or do we just pull up stakes and move inland? Who pays? Is it even possible?

Anyway, just my early morning musing. Nina’s in my lap and I’ve got to shake her from her slumber so I can go get ready for work.

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Talking to my red brother

Sigh. I called my brother tonight. A little background: he’s a Baptist preacher (this is my fault – a confession for a later time) and he lives in rural Oklahoma. Firmly Republican. During our conversation tonight we got to talking about the weather. Gosh, that seemed harmless enough. I talked about our recent cold weather and he talked about ice snapping branches and being without power and then he heads into the old “Al Gore and An Inconvenient Truth” snark. I said my bit about the melting polar ice caps and the drowning polar bears, and eventually we moved on to other things. But I couldn’t shake it and so penned this email to him. Will let you know what he has to say.

Hey big brother, it was good talking to you tonight. Hope you all enjoyed the movie.

Got a question for you based on something you said tonight because I noted some snarkiness in your voice when you mentioned his name.

Here’s my question: Have you even SEEN “An Inconvenient Truth”? If not, I highly recommend it. Put aside that the messenger is Al Gore for a moment (if you can – I realize that you are a Bush Republican), and realize that Al Gore didn’t come up with this idea of global warming on his own, and that he has been studying the environment for over thirty years. The movie is quite good and quite the eye opener.

Global warming doesn’t mean it gets consistently warm all over, it means if the overall average temperature of the earth continues to rise, that things like ocean currents that control our global climate change, that the polar ice caps start to melt (you do know that the “permafrost” is turning into a bog don’t you?). As a result you get weird weather, rising ocean levels, melting ice caps and ice sheets. It’s not the ice that’s already floating on the ocean that’s the problem; it’s the ice that is sitting atop land masses (like Greenland) that will be the issue. Ocean levels will rise as the water that was held in the ice sheets above sea level melt and pour into the sea. And it’s not just the melting of the ice caps, it will be the wholesale shift of temperate zones, farming will be disrupted as warmer climes creep northward.

Just today this study

was released. From the AP article:

“It’s later than we think,” said panel co-chair Susan Solomon, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientist who helped push through the document’s strong language.

Solomon, who remains optimistic about the future, said it’s close to too late to alter the future for her children — but maybe it’s not too late for her grandchildren.
The report was the first of four to be released this year by the panel, which was created by the United Nations in 1988. It found:

  • Global warming is “very likely” caused by man, meaning more than 90 percent certain. That’s the strongest expression of certainty to date from the panel.
  • If nothing is done to change current emissions patterns of greenhouse gases, global temperature could increase as much as 11 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.
  • But if the world does get greenhouse gas emissions under control — something scientists say they hope can be done — the best estimate is about 3 degrees Fahrenheit.
  • Sea levels are projected to rise 7 to 23 inches by the end of the century. Add another 4 to 8 inches if recent, surprising melting of polar ice sheets continues.

Heck, even Rick Warren and other evangelicals are getting on board and have issued a statement to that effect. From the preamble of Climate Change: An Evangelical Call to Action:

…Over the last several years many of us have engaged in study, reflection, and prayer related to the issue of climate change (often called “global warming”). For most of us, until recently this has not been treated as a pressing issue or major priority. Indeed, many of us have required considerable convincing before becoming persuaded that climate change is a real problem and that it ought to matter to us as Christians. But now we have seen and heard enough to offer the following moral argument related to the matter of human-induced climate change. We commend the four simple but urgent claims offered in this document to all who will listen, beginning with our brothers and sisters in the Christian community, and urge all to take the appropriate actions that follow from them.

Seriously, if you haven’t seen the movie, I would be happy to buy the DVD for you, if you promise to watch it. I am positive that it is not what you think. It wasn’t what I thought it would be.

With love…

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It’s all our fault!

George Bush is out on his Econo-palooza Tour and spoke today before a group of business leaders and took on the wage gap and exhorbitant executive pay.

The president acknowledged people’s continuing nervousness about their financial picture, despite a string of similar reports that provide some reason for optimism. He said some workers are being left behind in the booming economy and the disparity between the rich and the poor is growing.

”The fact is that income inequality is real. It has been rising for more than 25 years,” the president said. ”The earnings gap is now twice as wide as it was in 1980,” Bush said, adding that more education and training can lift peoples’ salaries.

If it’s really an education and training problem, then why is Bush cutting student aid and training programs?

And you know what? We ARE willing to get trained, if need be, for the Next Big Thing, our Job of the Future. For surely, our native intelligence and can-do spirit that has worked for us so well in generations past will get us where we need to go. We are the United States! Leader in science, technology, and innovation! So we craned our necks and looked down the road for the Next Big Thing. But we see nothing. The Next Big Thing is going to be, has to be, alternative energy and biotech. But the Bushies and his corporate cronies, along with the superstitious fundies that control his party, have ignored pleas for a national Apollo Project for alternative fuels, denied the science of global warming, and have let the religious right dictate policy on scientific research. So much for the Next Big Thing.

You know what else? I am sick and tired of elites like George W. Bush, who’s never had to worry about getting from one paycheck to the next, bashing hardworking Americans. I am sick and tired of elites like George W. Bush telling us that all we need to do to improve our lot in life is to get more education. Well. A lot of us did that. We went to school, got our degrees in computer science and the like. We got good jobs. And then, our jobs got shipped overseas. Or downsized. Or just eliminated altogether.

On a happier note, Bush’s pleas to the business leaders to show some responsibility on executive pay wasn’t exactly met with thunderous applause.

”America’s corporate boardrooms must step up to their responsibilities,” Bush said. ”You need to pay attention to the executive compensation packages that you approve. You need to show the world that America’s businesses are a model of transparency and good corporate governance.”

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, has said he will push legislation to require shareholder approval of executive compensation plans. And a separate bill before the Senate to raise the minimum wage would fund accompanying tax breaks to ease the burden on small businesses by capping executives’ tax-deferred pay packages at $1 million a year.

Still, even Bush’s words on pay were met with complete silence from the business crowd he addressed.

Honestly, it’s a wonder his head didn’t explode when he said this:

You need to show the world that America’s businesses are a model of transparency and good corporate governance.

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GREEN!

The Reno City Council has voted to join a coaliton of cities dedicated to reducing their carbon footprint. Nice.

The council on Wednesday supported Mayor Bob Cashell, among 350 mayors pledging to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as a cause of global warming. In the international agreement among nations that Presidents Clinton and Bush refused to sign, the goal is to reduce such emissions by 2012 to below 1990 levels.

The council directed staff to prepare a climate change plan in six months to inventory the use of alternative fuels, energy-conserving lights and other conservation efforts by the city and the community at large and recommend areas where more work needs to be done.

Later this summer, August 10-12th to be precise, plan on attending the Sustainable Living and Renewable Energy Roundup to be held at the Bently Science Center at WNCC. No web site for the event as yet, but it will be live in a few more weeks and I’ll post a link when it’s up and running.

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Is it already too late?

I have been really concerned about our relatively mild winter and lack of precip here in Nevada. I’ve got rose bushes that still haven’t lost their leaves, and until the recent cold snap, bushes that have attempted to bud (twice so far this season). Is this just one more piece in the puzzle?

From the Huffington Post this article about a huge mass of the Canadian Arctic ice shelf breaking off. Experts attribute it to global warming.

The Ayles Ice Shelf — all 41 square miles of it — broke clear 16 months ago from the coast of Ellesmere Island, about 500 miles south of the North Pole in the Canadian Arctic.

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The ice shelf was one of six major shelves remaining in Canada’s Arctic. They are packed with ancient ice that is more than 3,000 years old. They float on the sea but are connected to land.

Some scientists say it is the largest event of its kind in Canada in 30 years and that climate change was a major element.

“It is consistent with climate change,” Vincent said, adding that the remaining ice shelves are 90 percent smaller than when they were first discovered in 1906. “We aren’t able to connect all of the dots … but unusually warm temperatures definitely played a major role.”

A commenter at HuffPo posted a link to this article about a inhabited island completely submerged by rising ocean levels.

Rising seas, caused by global warming, have for the first time washed an inhabited island off the face of the Earth. The obliteration of Lohachara island, in India’s part of the Sundarbans where the Ganges and the Brahmaputra rivers empty into the Bay of Bengal, marks the moment when one of the most apocalyptic predictions of environmentalists and climate scientists has started coming true.

As the seas continue to swell, they will swallow whole island nations, from the Maldives to the Marshall Islands, inundate vast areas of countries from Bangladesh to Egypt, and submerge parts of scores of coastal cities.

Eight years ago, as exclusively reported in The Independent on Sunday, the first uninhabited islands – in the Pacific atoll nation of Kiribati – vanished beneath the waves. The people of low-lying islands in Vanuatu, also in the Pacific, have been evacuated as a precaution, but the land still juts above the sea. The disappearance of Lohachara, once home to 10,000 people, is unprecedented.

In Al Gore’s documentary on global warming, An Inconvenient Truth (if you haven’t seen it, do), he speaks of the inevitability of these sorts of events if we do nothing. Well, we’ve been doing nothing (won’t even sign on to Kyoto!), and now the chickens are coming home to roost.

Can we reverse this? I don’t know. But could we at least try? This isn’t a right or left issue. This is about our survival as a species…hell, as a planet…we’re not just talking human survival here.